Helene Spaghetti Models: Path Sparks Warning About Hurricane Sudden Change

Some meteorologists are warning Floridians about the forecast path of Tropical Storm Helene as the storm continues to strengthen in its approach to the Sunshine State.
After gaining the attention of meteorologists last week, Helene formed on Tuesday morning and is expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region later this week. The most recent National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast anticipates that the storm will reach near-hurricane strength by early Wednesday morning. Current graphics revealing the probable path of the storm’s center show it hitting roughly between Panama City and Clearwater Beach.
Most spaghetti models—or computer models illustrating a storm’s potential path—also show the storm tracking in that direction.
Newsweek has reached out to the NHC by email for comment.
However, impacts related to the storm, such as flooding and life-threatening storm surge, can extend far outside of the forecast cone, prompting meteorologists to advise people near the region to remain wary.
“Heading back to Tampa Bay to cover #Helene. This storm is a shining example of why it’s important to focus on all IMPACTS instead of just the cone,” Fox Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver posted on X, formerly Twitter. “Helene will be a rapidly intensifying, huge storm in size & its wind field will push a lot of water into the Gulf Coast & Bay.”
According to graphics included with Oliver’s post, storm surge impact of varying intensity stretched all the way south of Venice on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
In addition to causing widespread impact, storm paths can shift, which is what happened during Hurricane Ian’s devastating landfall in 2022. Most prior storm path models showed Ian hitting the Tampa area hard and then slowing, but as the storm got closer to landfall, models revealed it would cut east across the state before exiting into the Atlantic Ocean. The storm, which also made landfall in late September, had a death toll of more than 100.
Helene marks the eighth named storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Earlier this year, weather experts warned of the high possibility of an above-average season, citing the climate pattern of El Niño and abnormally warm ocean surface temperatures. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated forecast published in August anticipates anywhere between 17 and 24 named storms.
Helene’s forecast landfall strength is still uncertain. One weather-modeling system has predicted that Helene could be a massive Category 5 storm with winds over 155 mph, but other models suggest a weaker storm, Newsweek previously reported. The NHC and National Weather Service offices in the storm’s forecast region are warning that Helene could be classified as a Category 3 or higher, making it a major hurricane.